Issue-30 Vol. 1, Jan.-Mar. 2025 Paper ID-E30/7 ISSN:2581-7884 RNI:UPBIL/2017/75141
Gyan Prakash Morya1, Rajnish Kumar2, Subash Chand3 and S.C.Gaur4
(D.D.U.
Gorakhpur University, Gorakhpur)
Abstract
India is a vast country
occupying 2.4% world geographical area sharing 16.2% of the global human population and 15%
of the global livestock population. It is endowed with varied climate
supporting rich biodiversity and high diverse ecology. More than 60%
of its population living in rural areas, where agriculture is the major
concerns of rural economy, that is the backbone of Indian economy. The impact
of climate change on agriculture could result in problems with food security
and may threaten the livelihood activities upon which much of the population
depends. The livelihood of the rural people are directly dependent on climate
sensitive natural resources like land, water and forests. The impact of climate
change on these natural resources affect the agriculture, forests, water
resources and human health. The climate change and global warming pose significant
threat to agriculture. The Indian economy is mostly agrarian based and depends
on onset of monsoon and its further behavior. Pests population are strongly
dependent upon temperature and humidity. Lower yields from dairy cattle and
decline in fish breeding, migration and harvests are impacts of climate change.
Changes in climate may alter the distribution of important vector species and may increase the spread of
vector borne diseases. The loss in net revenue at the farm level is estimated
to range between 9% to 25% for a
temperature rise of 2ºC to 3.5ºC
(Kumar and Parikh, 1998 ; Kumar, 2010). It
has been predicted that 10-40% losses in crop production
in India with increase in temperature 3 to 5ºC
by the end of 21 century (IPCC, 2007;
Ninan and Bedamatta, 2012). This paper attempt to review
the impact of climate change on rural life in India in the direction to
minimize the risk of present and projected impact of climate change.
Key words: Climate
change, Global warming, Rural life, Agriculture, India.
Introduction
India is a vast country
occupying 2.4% world geographical area sharing 16.2% of the global human population and 15% of
the global livestock population. It is endowed with varied climate supporting
rich biodiversity and high diverse ecology. More than 60% of
its population living in rural areas, where agriculture is the major concerns
of rural economy, that is the backbone of Indian economy. The impact of climate
change on agriculture could result in problems with food security and may
threaten the livelihood activities upon which much of the population depends.
The livelihood of the rural people are directly dependent on climate sensitive
natural resources like land, water and forests. The impact of climate change on
these natural resources affect the agriculture, forests, water resources and human health. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) definesclimate change as, a
change in the state of climate that can be identified by changes in the mean or
the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period,
typically decades or longer. The current trend of global warming is the heating
of global surface temperature due to emission of green house gases, over a long
period of time. The global average surface temperature has increased by
approximately 0.6ºC over the past century. Further, the global average surface
temperature will increase by 1.4–5.8ºC over the end of 21 century and
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by 540–970 ppm over the same period
(IPCC, 2001). The Fourth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC,2007) concluded from direct observations of changes in
temperature, sea level, and snow cover in the northern hemisphere during 1850
to the present, that the warming of the earth’s climate system is unequivocal.
The global atmospheric
concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from a pre industrial value of
about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005. Multi Model averages show that the
temperature increases during 2090 - 2099 relative to 1980 - 1999 may range from 1.1 to 6.4ºC and sea level
rise from 18 to 59 cm. These could lead to impacts on fresh water availability,
oceanic acidification, food production, flooding of coastal areas and increased
burden of vector borne and water borne diseases associated with extreme weather
events. The Indian economy is mostly agrarian based and depends on onset of
monsoon and its further behavior. The year 2002 was a classical example to show
Indian food grain’s production depends on rainfall deficiency was 19% against
the long period average on the country and 29% of the area was affected due to
drought. The All India drought is declared when the rainfall deficiency for the
country as a whole is more than 10% of normal, and when more than 20% of the
country’s area is affected by drought condition. The kharif season food grain
production was adversely affected by a whopping fall of 19.1% due to All India
drought during monsoon 2012. High temperature in March 2004 adversely affected
crops like wheat, apple, mustard, rapeseed, linseed, potato, vegetables, pea
and tea across the State of Himachal Pradesh in India. The yield loss was
estimated between 20% and 60% depending upon the crop. Wheat and potato harvest
was advanced by 15-20 days and the flowering ofapple was early by 15 days. The
optimum temperature for fruit blossom and fruit set is 24ºC in the case of
apple while it experienced above 26ºC
for 17 days. The aentire region recorded between 2.1 and 7.9ºC higher maximum
temperature gainst the normal across the State of Himachal Pradesh in March
2004. A decline of 39% in annual cocoa yield was noticed in 2004 when co mpared
to that of 2003 due to rise in maximum temperature of the order of 1 to 3ºC
from 14th January to 16th March in Central part of Kerala, India. Such trend
was noticed whenever summer temperature shot up by 2 to
3ºC when compared to that of normal maximum temperature of 33 to 36.5ºC (Prasad
and Rana, 2006). An increase of 1-4 ºC, the grain yield reduced on average by
10% for each degree of temperature increased and annual wheat production could
plunge by 4-5 million tonnes with every 1ºC rise in the temperature have been
predicted in India by the end of 21
century (NATCOM, 2004; NAPCC, 2008
;Adhinarayanan, 2013). The loss in net revenue at the farm level is estimated
to range between 9% to 25% for a temperature rise of 2ºC to 3.5ºC (Kumar and
Parikh, 1998 ; Kumar, 2010). It has been predicted that 10-40% losses in crop
production in India with increase in temperature 3 to 5ºC by the end of 21
century (IPCC, 2007; Ninan and Bedamatta, 2012). The vulnerability of
agricultural production to climate change depends not only on the physiological
response of the affected plant, but also on the ability of the affected socio-economic
systems of production to cope with changes in yield, as well as with changes in
the frequency of droughts or floods. The adaptability of farmers in India is
severely restricted by the heavy reliance on natural factors and the lack of
complementary inputs and institutional support systems.
OBSERVED CLIMATE
CHANGE IN INDIA
Rainfall -While the observed
monsoon rainfall at the All India level does not show any significant trend,
regional monsoon variations have been recorded. A trend of increasing monsoon
seasonal rainfall has been found along the west coast, northern Andhra Pradesh,
and north-western India (+10% to +12% of the normal over the last 100 years)
while a trend of decreasing monsoon seasonal rainfall has been observed over
eastern Madhya Pradesh, north-eastern India, and some parts of Gujarat and
Kerala (-6% to - 8% of the normal over the last 100 years).
Surface Temperature -At the national level, increase of 0.4° C has been observed in surface air temperatures over the past century. A warming trend has been observed along the west coast, in central India, the interior peninsula, and northeastern India. However, cooling trends have been observed in northwest India and parts of south India.
Extreme Weather Events -Trends of Extreme Weather Events observed in multi-decadal periods of more frequent droughts followed by less severe droughts. There has been an overall increasing trend in severe storm incidence along the coast at the rate of 0.011 events per year. While the states of West Bengal and Gujarat have reported increasing trends, a decline has been observed in Orissa. Scientists, while analysing a daily rainfall data set, have shown (i) a rising trend in the frequency of heavy rain events, and (ii) a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate events over central India from 1951 to 2000.
Rise in Sea Level -Using the
records of coastal tide gauges in the north Indian Ocean for more than 40 years, Scientists have estimated that sea level rise was
between 1.06-1.75 mm per year. These rates are consistent
with 1-2 mm per year global sea level rise estimates of
the IPCC.
Melting of Himalayan Glaciers -The Himalayas possess one
of the largest resources of snow and ice and its glaciers form a source of
water for the perennial rivers such as the Indus, the Ganga, and the
Brahmaputra. Glacial melt may impact their long-term lean-season 10
flows, with adverse impacts on the economy in terms of water availability and
hydropower generation.
Impacts on Surface
Temperature -The simulation studies by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
(IITM), Pune, estimated that annual mean surface temperature is expected to
raise by the end of century, ranges from 3 to 5° C with warming more pronounced in the northern parts of
India. By 2070- 2099 the average temperatures across
seasons are likely to range between 2.5 to 5°
over different regions of India. Winter temperatures are likely to be
significantly higher ranging between 3.75 to 4.95° across the regions. The uncertainty is much higher with
regard to the precipitation and by 2070-2099 the South-
West monsoon precipitation is likely to increase between 9
to 27% across the regions.
Impacts on Water Resources -Changes in key climate variables, namely temperature, precipitation and humidity, may have significant long-term implications for the quality and quantity of water. River systems of the Brahmaputra, the Ganga, and the Indus, which benefit from melting snow in the lean season, are likely to be particularly affected by the decrease in snow cover. A decline in total run-off for all river basins, except Narmada and Tapti, is projected in India's NATCOM (2004). A decline in run-off by more than twothirds is also anticipated for Sabarmati and Luni basins. Due to sea level rise, the fresh water sources near the coastal regions will suffer salt intrusion.
Impacts on health -Changes in
climate may alter the distribution of important vector species (for example,
malarial mosquitoes) and may increase the spread of such diseases to new areas.
If there is an increase of 3.8°C in temperature and a 7% increase in relative humidity, the transmission windows i.e.,
months during which mosquitoes are active, 12 will be open
for all 12 months in 9 states in
India. The transmission windows in Jammu and Kashmir and in Rajasthan may
increase by 3-5 months. However, in Orissa and some
southern states, a further increase in temperature is likely to shorten the
transmission window by 2-3 months.
Impacts on Pests-Some of the most dramatic effects of climate change on pests and diseases are likely to be seen among arthropod insects like mosquitoes, midges, ticks, fleas and sand flies, and the viruses they carry. With changes in temperature and humidity levels, the populations of these insects may expand their geographic range, and expose animals and humans to diseases to which they have no natural immunity. Plant pests, which include insects, pathogens and weeds, continue to be one of the biggest constraints to food and agricultural production.
Impacts on Forests -Climate projections indicate that the country is
likely to experience shift in forest types, with consequent changes in forests
produce, and, in turn, livelihoods based on those products. Correspondingly,
the associated biodiversity is likely to be adversely impacted.Impacts on
Coastal Areas
A mean Sea Level Rise (SLR)
of 15-38 cm is projected along India's coast by the mid 21st century and of 46-59 cm by 2100. In addition, a projected increase in the
intensity of tropical cyclones poses a threat to the heavily populated coastal zones in the country (NATCOM, 2004).
Impacts on Biodiversity -The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has
projected that global average temperature increase during 21st
century will range from 1.4 to 4°C.
Research by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research based on distribution models of wild
relatives of three staple crops of the poor i.e. Peanuts, 13
cowpea and potato suggests that 16-22 per cent of wild
species will be threatened by extinction by 2055. Loss of
genetic diversity can have serious long-term consequences globally.
Adaptation, in the context of climate change, comprises the measures taken to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change, e.g. relocating the communities living close to the sea shore, for instance, to cope with the rising sea level or switching to crops that can withstand higher temperatures. Mitigation comprises measures to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases that cause climate change in the first place, e.g. by switching to renewable sources of energy such as solar energy or wind energy or nuclear energy instead of burning fossil fuel in thermal power stations. Current government expenditure in India on adaptation to climate variability exceeds 2.6% of the GDP, with agriculture, water resources, health and sanitation, forests, coastal-zone infrastructure and extreme weather events, being specific areas of concern.
Conclusion-It has been concluded that, the occurrence of floods, droughts, heat and cold waves are common across the world due to climate change. Their adverse impact on livelihood of farmers is tremendous. It is more so in India as our economy is more dependent on agriculture. Food security and environmental sustainability are the major focuses of global agriculture. The livelihood of the rural people are directly dependent on climate sensitive natural resources like loud water and forests. The impact of climate change on these nature resources affect the agriculture, forests, water resources and human health mitigation and adaptation policy formulation, one of the crucial inputs needed in the potential impact due to climate change on various climate sensitive sectors. For mitigation, information would provide the required justification for decarburizing the energy systems. on other hand, in the context of adaptation, knowledge on climate change incluced impacts will be helpful in prioritizing the adaptation in most needed sectors and regions. there is need to guide formers on projected impact climate change and sensitize then on propeople mitigation and adaptation options to minimize the risk in agricultural and allied sectors of rural livelihoods of India.
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